The government has made clear solar, wind and gas projects will supply most of the nation’s future generation capacity although contracted coal power plants will be developed and a further 1.5 GW of new coal generation capacity is expected by 2030.
The DoE envisages 114 MW of already-awarded solar capacity will come online next year with a further 300 MW of projects with signed power purchase agreements due to be added in 2021. Another 400 MW of contracted solar capacity is expected to be commissioned in 2022 and the DoE expects another gigawatt of newly-procured capacity in three years’ time.
The department is planning to allocate a gigawatt of solar per year in 2023, 2025 and 2028-30, with no new solar anticipated in 2024, 2026 or 2027. If those expectations are realized, South Africa would have 8.28 GW of utility-scale solar capacity in 2030, with PV supplying just 10.5% of its power mix.
Wind power capacity is expected to grow from around 1.98 GW today to 17.7 GW by the end of the decade, to make up 22.5% of the energy mix according to the Integrated Resource Plan.